大陆生育率低近来成为一个热门话题，中共已经承认大陆总和生育率已经跌破警戒线，很快会进入老龄化社会。虽然中共已经开放了生二胎政策，但收效不大。

发表： 2020-12-11 08:41:06 | 更新： 2021-03-21 00:09:12

中共民政部部长李纪恒日前撰文表示，中国已经进入了“少子老龄化”，大陆适合生育年龄段的妇女生育意愿低，总和生育率已经跌破警戒线，人口发展进入关键转折期。

大陆《第一财经》报导，多个调查研究报告显示，低生育率现象在大陆已经普遍化、趋势化。

中共浙江省统计局、发改委日前联合发布《浙江人口结构及其变化趋势分析》（下称“报告”）显示，浙江省面临出生人口下降、人口老龄化加速等诸多特征。在今后一段时期，这些趋势可能进一步加剧，并对该省经济社会发展产生基础性影响。

报告称，2016年“全面二孩”政策正式实施后，浙江出生人口和出生率都有大幅提高，但生育高峰期很快于2017年到来，2018年开始常住出生人口明显回落。

数据显示，浙江出生人口2018年回落到62.8万人，2019年进一步回落到60.9万人；人口出生率2018年回落至11.02‰，2019年进一步回落至10.51‰。

报告认为，浙江重新回到适度生育水平难度巨大。一是育龄妇女规模减少。二是生育意愿较低。三是生育成本巨大。

按照联合国标准，65岁以上老年人占总人口的比重达到14%，即进入深度老龄化社会，浙江已于2019年超过这一标准。

除了浙江之外，被称为“二孩大省”的山东，2018年出生人口从2017年的174.98万人，减少至132.95万人，2019年继续下滑至118.39万人。

中共安徽省统计局今年3月发布的《人口发展现状与挑战》报告显示，2019年该省人口出生率下降，自然增长人口创40年来新低。

据报导，从大陆全境数据来看，在全面二孩政策实施后的首年（2016年），出生人口达1786万人，创下了本世纪以来的新高。到了2018年，二孩效应明显减弱，当年出生人口仅为1523万人。2019年，全年出生人口1465万人，比2018年减少58万人。从人口出生率看，2019年为10.48‰，创历史新低。

报导表示，大陆“00后（2000年以后出生）”与“10后”共有32,564万人，而“80后”与“90后”合计为42,393万人。如此算来，本世纪前20年，比上世纪最后20年出生人口减少了10,375万人。

2018年以后出生率开始降低，报导总结了十大原因：经济负担重、年龄太大、没人带孩子、养育孩子太辛苦、夫妻身体原因、还没想好、影响个人事业发展、丈夫不想生、现有子女不愿意、其它原因。其中，经济负担重成为不愿意生孩子的最主要原因，占比达60.3%

面对生育率下跌，大陆山西、河南等不少地方出台了鼓励生育的措施。

厦门大学经济学系副教授丁长发认为，鼓励生育要落到实处，需真正解决人们“生不起、养不起”等问题。在大都市，受高房价、高生活成本等因素影响，生育率比乡下低了很多。因此，解决住房、医疗、教育、养老等民生问题，对提高生育率十分关键，“提高生育意愿必须要有一系列公共服务制度安排。”

而网民在留言中最多的也是因为经济原因不敢生二胎。网民“KENNY”表示：“2014当年，我月工资3500，媳妇3500，一个娃幼儿园2000元每月。双职工没时间接放学，全靠老人帮带。虽说老人不愿意收我们钱，可是就算我们想给，也付不起应付的2000元工资。”

“阿鸭子”也表示：“2014年，我家先生到手工资4000不到，小孩上了最便宜的幼儿园还要差不多3000！因为老人不愿意帮忙带孩子只能我自己带，那种省吃俭用的日子太苦，所以坚决拒绝二胎！”

“阳光下的枫叶”表示，除了经济原因之外，工作压力太大也不敢要二胎。“现在培养一个小孩成本太高，钱是一方面，除面对工作压力，还要回家面对孩子的作业，真的吃不消。现在又搞延迟退休，往后老人也要上班，普通家庭没钱请保姆，孩子谁带？”

Women of childbearing age on the mainland have low fertility intentions, and the total fertility rate has fallen below the warning line. (NICOLAS ASFOURI/AFP via Getty Images)   

The low fertility rate on the mainland has recently become a hot topic, as the Chinese Communist Party has admitted that the total fertility rate on the mainland has fallen below the warning line and will soon enter an aging society. Although the Communist Party has opened up the policy of having two children, it has had little effect.

Li Jiheng, Minister of Civil Affairs of the Communist Party of China, recently wrote that China has entered an "aging society with fewer children," and that women of childbearing age on the mainland are less willing to give birth, the total fertility rate has fallen below the alert line, and population development has entered a critical turning point.

According to a number of research reports, the phenomenon of low fertility rate has become widespread and trendy in mainland China, as reported by China Business First.

According to the "Analysis of Zhejiang's Population Structure and its Changing Trends" (hereinafter referred to as "the report") jointly released by the Statistics Bureau of Zhejiang Province and the Development and Reform Commission of the Communist Party of China, Zhejiang Province is facing many characteristics such as declining births and accelerating population aging. In the coming period, these trends may further intensify, and have a fundamental impact on the province's economic and social development.

According to the report, after the official implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy in 2016, Zhejiang's birth population and birth rate both increased significantly, but the peak birth period soon arrived in 2017, and the resident birth population fell back significantly starting in 2018.

Data show that Zhejiang's birth population fell back to 628,000 in 2018 and further to 609,000 in 2019; the birth rate fell back to 11.02 per thousand in 2018 and further to 10.51 per thousand in 2019.

The report argues that it is extremely difficult for Zhejiang to return to moderate fertility levels. First, the size of women of childbearing age has decreased. Second, the willingness to give birth is low. Third, the cost of childbirth is huge.

According to the United Nations standard, the proportion of people over 65 years of age in the total population reached 14%, that is, to enter a deeply aging society, Zhejiang has exceeded this standard in 2019.

In addition to Zhejiang, Shandong, known as a "two-child province," saw the number of births drop from 1,749,800 in 2017 to 1,239,500 in 2018 and continue to decline to 1,183,900 in 2019.

A report on "Current Situation and Challenges of Population Development" released by the Communist Party of China's Anhui Provincial Bureau of Statistics in March this year showed that the province's birth rate declined in 2019, with natural population growth hitting a 40-year low.

In terms of mainland-wide data, in the first year after the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy (2016), the number of births reached 17.86 million, a record high for the century, according to the report. By 2018, the two-child effect waned significantly, with only 15.23 million births that year. 2019 saw 14.65 million births for the year, 580,000 fewer than in 2018. In terms of the birth rate, it was 10.48 per thousand in 2019, a record low.

According to the report, there are 325.64 million "post-00s (born after 2000)" and "post-10s" on the mainland, while the "post-80s" and "post-90s" together account for 32.64 million people. The total number of "post-80s" and "post-90s" is 423.93 million. In this way, the number of births in the first 20 years of this century is 103.75 million less than in the last 20 years of the last century.

The report summarizes the top 10 reasons why the birth rate began to decrease after 2018: heavy financial burden, too old, no one to bring up children, too hard to raise children, physical reasons for couples, not yet ready, affecting personal career development, husbands not wanting to have children, existing children not wanting to have children, and other reasons. Among them, the economic burden has become the most important reason for not wanting to have children, accounting for 60.3 percent

In the face of falling fertility rates, many places on the mainland, such as Shanxi and Henan, have introduced measures to encourage childbirth.

Ding Changfa, associate professor of economics at Xiamen University, believes that to encourage childbirth in practice, people need to really solve the problem of "can't afford to give birth, can't afford to feed" and so on. In metropolitan areas, affected by high housing prices and high cost of living, the fertility rate is much lower than in the countryside. Therefore, to solve the housing, medical, education, pension and other livelihood issues, to improve the fertility rate is very critical, "to improve the willingness to give birth must be a series of public service system arrangements."

The most common reason for netizens to leave messages is that they are afraid to have a second child for economic reasons. Netizen "KENNY" said: "2014 year, my monthly salary of 3500, my daughter-in-law 3500, a child kindergarten 2000 yuan per month. Double workers do not have time to pick up after school, all rely on the elderly to help bring. Although the elderly do not want to charge us money, but even if we want to give, can not afford to pay the 2,000 yuan salary payable."

"A duck" also said: "In 2014, my husband's salary is less than 4,000, the child went to the cheapest kindergarten and almost 3,000! "

"Maple leaves in the sun" said, in addition to economic reasons, the work pressure is too big to have a second child. "Now the cost of raising a child is too high, money is one side, in addition to the face of work pressure, but also home to face the child's homework, really can not eat. Now and delayed retirement, after the elderly also have to work, ordinary families do not have money to hire nannies, children who take?"

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