最近，马云可谓霉运当头，蚂蚁金服上市被阻后，阿里巴巴24日再被当局以涉嫌垄断立案调查，种种不利消息，令阿里股价大跌8.13%。专家揭习近平的目的，并非只针对阿里而是接盘整个民企。预料《反垄断法》修订后，阿里可能被“拆骨”。其他红顶商人也劫数难逃。

发表： 2020-12-26 08:46:56 | 更新： 2021-03-20 08:26:10

【中国观察2020年12月25日讯】蚂蚁金服上市临门被刹停后，中共先后发布规范互联网小贷、防范平台经济垄断的新规。随后，阿里巴巴投资等3间企业再被当局以违犯《反垄断法》相继处罚。中共国家市场监管总局则发布关于反垄断征求意见稿。

12月24日，市场监管总局又以“二选一”涉嫌垄断行为，对阿里巴巴进行立案调查。同日，蚂蚁集团遭二次约谈。

种种不利消息，令阿里巴巴股价暴跌。24日美股开盘之后，阿里巴巴股价低开超10%，随后跌幅不断扩大，当晚跌幅超过15%，创下有史以来最大单日跌幅。市值蒸发了超过1100亿美金，相当于7000亿人民币。

反垄断针对所有民企

香港《苹果日报》分析说，中共官方的监管触手并非只针对阿里巴巴，其他民企，特别是各大互联网巨企也担心早晚会受到波及。

中共12月11日召开政治局会议，将“反垄断”定为2021年的工作重点；16日至18日，中共召开经济工作会议，部署2021年经济工作，提出要“强化反垄断”、“防止资本无序扩张”，以及完善平台企业垄断认定、数据搜集使用管理等法律规范。

中共发改委18至19日召开工作会议，拟定2021年重点工作，提出明年起实施“国企改革三年行动方案”。习近平在会议上就反垄断、防止资本无序扩张提出警告。

12月21日，中共全国人大常委会宣布，明年重点之一是修订《反垄断法》，立法工作要立足新发展阶段，加强“重点领域、新兴领域、涉外领域”。并会继续审议及争取早日推行《数据安全法》、《个人讯息保护法》。

中共新华社报导说，中国贸促会研究院副院长赵萍表示，“互联网绝非法外之地”，所以《反垄断法》才被提上议程。

民营新经济影响力过巨

《苹果》分析说，习近平当局如此加快加重规管互联网平台，是因过去10多年这些快速壮大的民营新经济影响力已过巨。

根据《中国互联网络发展状况统计报告》，截至2020年6月，大陆互联网普及率达67%，网民有9.4亿，其中网上外卖、在线教育、网约车、在线医疗等用户，分别占整体网民43.5%、40.5%、36.2%和29.4%。

而大陆民众的线上线下生活，基本也由百度、滴滴、阿里、京东、腾讯、美团等几家互联网巨企所左右。社会近年也一再讨论“大数据杀熟”、“二选一”等损害消费者权益的问题。

不过，官方出手规管反垄断也令外界批评窒碍市场自由发展，压抑经济创新，甚至与习近平提出的发展科技、推动创新有矛盾。

近日，有网民翻出经济学者张五常的短文来表达对监管的担忧。短文大意是：“你不让马云、马化腾垄断，中国经济搞不起来”、“公平竞争是说游戏规则要公平，胜负、能力本身是不公平的。这才是人类进步的根源”。

专家：反垄断恐变民粹式打压

浸会大学经济系高级讲师郭润江对《苹果》分析说，反垄断最要提防的是民粹式规管，不能单单因某企业规模大、利润高、市占率多就指是垄断。企业有高市占率，代表营运高效，如因此被视为垄断遭压抑，便会打击创新及技术发展。

美银前高级副总裁吴明德提醒，中共以“反垄断”为名管制互联网企业，是因它们太有钱及威胁到中共管治，西方国家则是基于保障消费者权益和选择自由。

他说，中共现有的《反垄断法》只针对传统行业，对互联网却没有“王管”，“但网企不同业务互通的大数据就犀利过中共”，加上拥有的巨额财富令官方不能容忍，担心管治威信和资源被民企夺去。

吴明德预料，《反垄断法》修订后，阿里巴巴最可能会被“拆骨”，按其业务性质分为电商、云计算、物流和金融保险，“官方再用发牌、行政手段，逼你主动邀请官方资本加入，例如投资或养老基金等，以确保政府对企业有控制权”。

专家：习下大棋接盘整个民企

看中国引述消息人士透露，习近平内参团队正在评估彻底接管阿里巴巴之后，会带来多大的经济震荡，以习近平的格局蚂蚁金服不足挂齿，如何能平稳的接盘整个中国的民营企业，才是习近平下的大棋。

原北大经济学院副教授夏业良接受希望之声采访时表示，中共这一轮所谓的“反垄断”，表面上看起来好像是维护市场竞争秩序，但大家都知道，中国真正的垄断是国有企业、官办企业的垄断，而且垄断利润惊人。

夏业良说，当这些国企亏损时，当局却动用国家的财政来进行补贴。而民营企业一旦跟它们竞争，很快就会受到官方的重压。

近期，中共对阿里巴巴、腾讯、京东、美团、拼多多、滴滴等主要的网络平台业者提出反垄断警告，实际上这些规矩却不能够同样运用到官办的国有企业。

夏业良质疑，那些占有绝对的优势地位的国企垄断了行业，敢说自己没有不正当的竞争嘛？有没有通过垄断来压制其他弱小的企业呢？所以中共的反垄断非常虚伪，而且带有对民营企业的严重歧视。

专家：红顶商人也劫数难逃

夏业良说，马云的企业，实际上大家都知道那个股东里边有江泽民的孙子江志成，有很多中共前一届领导人高官的的儿子或孙子在里边。习近平对马云的企业开刀，一方面是对马云的言论表示强烈不满；另一方面也是对贪官敲山震虎。

夏业良认为，现在连马云这样的企业，过去是跟中共靠得非常紧，被称为“红顶商人”都受到威胁，那么其它的企业也会感到紧张或者是威胁。他们逃无可逃，也不准资本撤离，不准离开中国。但他们又没有办法得到有效的保护。

他表示，民营企业不管多大的企业，有多大的财富，哪一天中共不高兴了，它完全可以让你全部归零。公司集团“明天系”肖建华当年掌控的资金在多少千亿，后来连人都消失了，下落不明。还有吴小晖，有着很庞大的财富王国，但是突然某一天，就消失了。而海航的CEO王健，居然莫名其妙地死了。

夏业良表示，这一系列事件，说明民营企业在中国，没有真正长久的安全保障，没有平等的法律地位。就是说，不论是自然人还是法人，都没有办法获得有效的保护。

After the blocked listing of Ant Financial Services, Alibaba was investigated by the authorities for alleged monopoly on the 24th, and all the unfavorable news made Ali's share price plunged 8.13%. Experts have revealed that Xi Jinping's aim is not just to target Ali but to take over the entire private sector. It is expected that after the amendment of the Anti-Monopoly Law, Ali may be "dismantled". Other red-top businessmen are also in danger.

After the brakes on the listing of Ant Financial Services, the Chinese Communist Party issued new rules to regulate Internet microfinance and prevent economic monopoly of the platform. Subsequently, Alibaba Investment and three other companies were punished by the authorities for violating the Anti-Monopoly Law. The CCP's State Administration of Market Supervision (SAMS), on the other hand, issued a draft on anti-monopoly for public comment.

On December 24, the General Administration of Market Supervision opened a case against Alibaba for alleged monopolistic behavior of "choosing one over the other". On the same day, Ant Group was interviewed for the second time.

After the opening of the US stock market on the 24th, Alibaba's share price opened more than 10% lower and then fell more than 15%, the biggest single day drop ever. The market value evaporated by more than $110 billion, equivalent to 700 billion RMB.

Anti-monopoly targets all private companies

Hong Kong's Apple Daily analyzed that the Communist Party's official regulatory tentacles are not only targeting Alibaba, but other private companies, especially major Internet giants, are also worried that they will be affected sooner or later.

On December 11, the Communist Party of China (CPC) held a meeting of the Politburo and set "anti-monopoly" as a priority for 2021. From 16 to 18, the CPC held an economic work conference to deploy economic work in 2021, proposing to "strengthen anti-monopoly" and "prevent disorderly expansion of capital", as well as to improve the legal regulation of monopoly determination and data collection and use management of platform enterprises.

The CPC Development and Reform Commission held a working meeting from 18th to 19th to draw up the key work in 2021, and proposed to implement the "three-year action plan for reforming state-owned enterprises" from next year. At the meeting, Xi Jinping warned about anti-monopoly and prevention of disorderly capital expansion.

On December 21, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) announced that one of the priorities for next year is to amend the Anti-Monopoly Law, and that the legislative work should be based on the new development stage and strengthen "key areas, emerging areas and foreign-related areas". It will also continue to consider and strive for the early implementation of the Data Security Law and the Personal Information Protection Law.

The Chinese Communist Party's Xinhua News Agency reported that Zhao Ping, vice president of the CCPIT Research Institute, said that "the Internet is not a place outside the law," which is why the Anti-Monopoly Law is on the agenda.

The new private economy is too influential

According to an analysis by The Apple, Xi Jinping's administration is speeding up the regulation of Internet platforms because the new private economy, which has grown rapidly over the past decade, has become too influential.

According to the Statistical Report on the Development of China's Internet, as of June 2020, the Internet penetration rate on the mainland reached 67%, with 940 million Internet users, of whom 43.5%, 40.5%, 36.2% and 29.4% of the overall Internet users are online takeaway, online education, online taxi and online medical users, respectively.

The online and offline lives of mainlanders are basically shaped by a few Internet giants such as Baidu, Drip, Ali, Jingdong, Tencent and Meituan. In recent years, the society has repeatedly discussed the issues of "big data to kill the ripe" and "second choice" to harm consumers' rights.

However, the official regulation of anti-monopoly has also been criticized for stifling the free development of the market, suppressing economic innovation, and even contradicting Xi Jinping's proposal to develop science and technology and promote innovation.

Recently, some netizens have turned to a short article by economist Zhang Wuchang to express their concerns about regulation. The short article is to the effect that "you do not let Ma Yun and Ma Huateng monopoly, China's economy can not get up", "fair competition means that the rules of the game should be fair, win or lose, ability itself is not fair. This is the root of human progress".

Experts: Anti-monopoly fears turn into populist suppression

The Baptist University Department of Economics senior lecturer Guo Runjiang said to the "Apple" analysis, anti-monopoly is the most important to prevent populist regulation, not only because of the size of an enterprise, high profits, market share is more than a monopoly. The company has a high market share, representing efficient operations, and if this is seen as a monopoly is suppressed, it will hit innovation and technological development.

Wu Mingde, a former senior vice president of Bank of America, reminded that the Chinese Communist Party regulates Internet companies in the name of "anti-monopoly" because they are too rich and threaten the Communist Party's governance, while Western countries do so to protect consumer rights and freedom of choice.

He said that the existing Anti-Monopoly Law only targets traditional industries, but there is no "king control" on the Internet, "but the big data of different business interoperability of Internet enterprises is sharper than the Chinese Communist Party," and the huge amount of wealth owned by them is intolerable to officials, who fear that the prestige and resources of governance will be taken away by private enterprises.

Wu Mingde predicted that after the amendment of the Anti-Monopoly Law, Alibaba will most likely be "dismantled" and divided into e-commerce, cloud computing, logistics and finance and insurance according to the nature of its business. "The government will then use licensing and administrative means to force you to take the initiative to invite official capital to join, such as investment or pension funds, to ensure that the government has control over the enterprise.

Experts: Xi plays a big game to take over the entire private sector

The source quoted by China Watch reveals that Xi Jinping's internal staff team is evaluating how much of an economic shock it will bring after a complete takeover of Alibaba, and how it can smoothly take over the entire Chinese private sector is the big game Xi is playing.

Xia Yeliang, an associate professor at the former Peking University School of Economics, said in an interview with Voice of Hope that the Chinese Communist Party's so-called "anti-monopoly" round appears to be about maintaining order in market competition, but we all know that the real monopoly in China is the monopoly of state-owned enterprises and government-run enterprises, and the monopoly is incredibly profitable.

Xia Yeliang said that when these state-owned enterprises lose money, the authorities use the state treasury to subsidize them. And once private companies compete with them, they are soon under heavy official pressure.

Recently, the Communist Party has issued anti-monopoly warnings against major online platform operators such as Alibaba, Tencent, Jingdong, Meituan, Jindo, and Drip, but in fact these rules cannot be applied to government-run state-owned enterprises as well.

Xia Yeliang questioned, those state-owned enterprises with absolute dominance monopolize the industry, dare to say they have no unfair competition? Have they used their monopoly to suppress other small and weak enterprises? So the Chinese Communist Party's anti-monopoly is very hypocritical and has serious discrimination against private enterprises.

Experts: even the red-top businessmen cannot escape

The company's shareholders include Jiang Zemin's grandson, Jiang Zhicheng, and the sons or grandsons of many senior Communist Party leaders, said Xia Yeliang. Xi Jinping's attack on Ma's business is, on the one hand, an expression of strong dissatisfaction with Ma's remarks; on the other hand, it is also a shock to corrupt officials.

According to Xia Yeliang, even companies like Ma Yun, who used to be very close to the Communist Party and was known as a "red-top businessman", are now under threat, so other companies will also feel nervous or threatened. They have no way to escape and are not allowed to withdraw their capital or leave China. But they have no way to get effective protection.

He said that no matter how big a private enterprise is, no matter how much wealth it has, the day the CCP gets upset, it can bring you back to zero. The company group "tomorrow system" Xiao Jianhua when the control of funds in how many hundreds of billions, and then even people have disappeared, the whereabouts of unknown. And Wu Xiaohui, with a very large wealth kingdom, but suddenly one day, it disappeared. And the CEO of HNA, Wang Jian, actually died inexplicably.

Xia Yeliang said, this series of events, shows that private enterprises in China, there is no real long-term security, no equal legal status. That is, whether natural or legal persons, there is no way to get effective protection.

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