【中国观察2020年12月14日讯】12月11日，习近平主持了中共政治局会议，喉舌媒体称会议研究了2021年的经济工作，也对目前经济形势做了判断，并承认“新冠肺炎疫情和外部环境仍存在诸多不确定性”，还提出要“增强政治意识”，善于从“讲政治的高度”推进经济发展工作。
而在几天前的12月3日，中共住房城乡建设部召开座谈会，韩正在会上再强调，要坚持“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒”的定位，“时刻绷紧房地产市场调控这根弦”等。
“房住不炒”、“平稳发展”的说词也被列入了中共“第十四个五年规划和二〇三五年远景目标的建议”中。
中共银保监会主席郭树清建议的辅导读本中撰文，“房地产是现阶段我国金融风险方面最大的‘灰犀牛’”。他的理由是世界上一百三十多次金融危机中，一百多次与房地产有关。“而目前，中国的房地产相关贷款占银行业贷款的39%，还有大量债券、股本、信托等资金进入房地产行业。”
大陆地产公司的一名市场经理李女士向大纪元介绍，官方多次提“房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的”，但中共抑制不了这个现象，目前危机加剧。
她引述地产界常参考的“克而瑞研究所”的资料说，尽管一连串政策推出，但实际融资总额还是同比上涨17.2%（9月数据）。“从长远来看，房地产不该是作为短期刺激经济的手段，中国需要的是持续、稳定、长远的经济发展。但短期内非常难改变这种现状，“土地交易仍然是地方解决财政危机最快、最粗暴的方法。”
她进一步分析，各类炒房热早已经从1、2线城市蔓延到4、5线城市。全国各地政府各类“新区”、“高新区”概念满天飞。“房地产也开始变着花样炒房，纷纷强调转型为自持物业的‘产业运营’、‘商业运营’、‘文旅运营’、‘城市运营商’，从最早的产业地产（华夏幸福），到文旅地产（万达、融创），到各类养老地产等，但骨子里仍旧是为了炒房。”
她表示，“所以一方面中国渴望摆脱依托房地产短期刺激经济的状况，一方面整个金融市场又崇尚短平快，两者之间就是冲突的。我看到过一组数据，2019年房地产基本占了银行贷款的47%，比郭树清说的37%要高，实际可能更高。”
美国华盛顿信息与战略研究所学者李恒青此前接受采访时就表示，郭树清所看到这头“灰犀牛”，会压倒很多行业，“第一是压垮房地产本身；第二压垮中国的银行业。就像当年2008年整个华尔街金融危机，实际上是一样的。”
“这块次贷后续的贷款，二级贷款这一块，可能会出现大危机。所以这个都是现在表面隐藏在虚假的繁荣词汇下面的真正火山。”
China's Politburo meeting mentions real estate again Analysis: Crisis intensifies
Recently, the Chinese Communist Party held a meeting of the Politburo to set the tone for next year's economic work, and said to promote economic development from a "political height" and to promote the "healthy and stable development" of the real estate market. Analysts believe this highlights the intensification of real estate problems on the mainland.
On December 11, Xi presided over a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China, and the mouthpiece media said the meeting studied the economic work in 2021 and also made a judgment on the current economic situation, and acknowledged that "the new pneumonia epidemic and the external environment still have many uncertainties", and also proposed to "enhance political awareness", good at "political height" to promote economic development work.
In addition to mentioning "focus on demand-side reform" and "strengthen anti-monopoly and prevent disorderly expansion of capital", the meeting also mentioned the real estate market, stressing "to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market".
And a few days ago on December 3, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a symposium, Han is again stressed at the meeting, to adhere to the "house is for living, not for speculation" positioning, "always tighten the string of real estate market regulation" and so on.
The words "housing is not for speculation" and "stable development" were also included in the CPC's "14th Five-Year Plan and 2035 Visionary Goals".
Guo Shuqing, chairman of the CPC Central Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission, wrote in the suggested tutorial reading that "real estate is the biggest 'gray rhinoceros' in terms of financial risks in China at this stage". His reasoning is that of the more than one hundred and thirty financial crises in the world, more than one hundred have been related to real estate. "And currently, China's real estate-related loans account for 39% of banking sector loans, and there is also a large amount of bonds, equity, trusts and other funds entering the real estate sector."
Ms. Li, a marketing manager for a mainland real estate company, told the Epoch Times that officials have repeatedly said that "houses are for living, not for speculation," but the Communist Party has been unable to curb the phenomenon, and the crisis has intensified.
She cited information from the Kruger Institute, which is often consulted by the real estate sector, saying that despite a series of policies, the total amount of actual financing rose 17.2 percent year-on-year (September data). "In the long run, real estate should not be used as a short-term stimulus to the economy, what China needs is sustained, stable and long-term economic development. But it is very difficult to change this status quo in the short term, and "land deals are still the fastest and most brutal way for localities to solve their fiscal crisis."
She further analyzed that all kinds of speculation fever has spread from 1st and 2nd tier cities to 4th and 5th tier cities. The concept of "new district" and "high-tech zone" is flying around the country. "Real estate also began to change the speculation, have emphasized the transformation of self-owned property 'industrial operations', 'commercial operations', 'cultural tourism operations' , 'urban operators', from the earliest industrial real estate (Huaxia Happiness), to cultural tourism real estate (Wanda, Sunac), to all kinds of pension real estate, etc., but the bone is still to speculate on housing."
She said, "So on the one hand, China is eager to get rid of the situation of relying on real estate to stimulate the economy in the short term, and on the other hand, the whole financial market advocates short and fast, and the two are in conflict with each other. I've seen a set of data that real estate basically accounted for 47 percent of bank loans in 2019, which is higher than the 37 percent that Guo Shuqing said, and probably higher in reality."
Lee Hengqing, a scholar at the Institute for Information and Strategic Studies in Washington, said in a previous interview that the "gray rhino" seen by Guo Shuqing will overwhelm many industries, "the first is to crush the real estate itself; the second to crush China's banking sector. Just like the entire Wall Street financial crisis in 2008, is actually the same."
"This piece of subprime follow-up loans, secondary loans this piece, there may be a big crisis. So this is all the real volcano that is now hidden underneath the surface of the false prosperity vocabulary."